ABSTRACT
Aerosols influence the Earth's energy balance directly by modifying the radiation transfer and indirectly by altering the cloud microphysics. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions dropped considerably when the global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in severe restraints on mobility, production, and public life in spring 2020. We assess the effects of these reduced emissions on direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing over Europe, excluding contributions from contrails. We simulate the atmospheric composition with the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model in a baseline (business-as-usual) and a reduced emission scenario. The model results are compared to aircraft observations from the BLUESKY aircraft campaign performed in May-June 2020 over Europe. The model agrees well with most of the observations, except for sulfur dioxide, particulate sulfate, and nitrate in the upper troposphere, likely due to a biased representation of stratospheric aerosol chemistry and missing information about volcanic eruptions. The comparison with a baseline scenario shows that the largest relative differences for tracers and aerosols are found in the upper troposphere, around the aircraft cruise altitude, due to the reduced aircraft emissions, while the largest absolute changes are present at the surface. We also find an increase in all-sky shortwave radiation of 0.21 +/- 0.05 Wm(-2) at the surface in Europe for May 2020, solely attributable to the direct aerosol effect, which is dominated by decreased aerosol scattering of sunlight, followed by reduced aerosol absorption caused by lower concentrations of inorganic and black carbon aerosols in the troposphere. A further increase in shortwave radiation from aerosol indirect effects was found to be much smaller than its variability. Impacts on ice crystal concentrations, cloud droplet number concentrations, and effective crystal radii are found to be negligible.
ABSTRACT
The question of the origin of coronavirus spread like wildfire ever since it wreaked havoc among humankind, and ever since the scientific community has worked tirelessly to trace the history of the virus. In this review, we have tried to compile relevant literature pertaining to the different theories of origin of SARS-CoV-2, hopefully without any bias, and we strongly support the zoonotic origin of the infamous SARS-CoV-2 in bats and its transfer to human beings through the most probable evolutionary hosts, pangolins and minks. We also support the contemporary 'Circulation Model' that simply mirrors the concept of evolution to explain the origin of the virus which, the authors believe, is the most rational school of thought. The most recent variant of SARS-CoV-2, Omicron, has been taken as an example to clarify the concept. We recommend the community to refer to this model for further understanding and delving deep into this mystery of the origin of SARS-CoV-2.
ABSTRACT
MacLean and colleagues recently published a very elegant analysis demonstrating that SARS-CoV-2 carries signs of positive selection and that it was already adapted to humans prior to the emergence of COVID-19. Using the Spillover theory as a reference model for zoonotic emergence, they conclude that SARS-CoV-2 must have acquired this human adaptation in bats. We reinterpreted the data from MacLean et al. using a different model of zoonotic emergence as reference, the Circulation model. The use of the Circulation model provides a more parsimonious interpretation showing that this adaptation to humans occurs in the human population after primo infection.
ABSTRACT
While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with currently more than 117 million cumulated cases and 2.6 million deaths worldwide as per March 2021, its origin is still debated. Although several hypotheses have been proposed, there is still no clear explanation about how its causative agent, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in human populations. Today, scientifically-valid facts that deserve to be debated still coexist with unverified statements blurring thus the knowledge on the origin of COVID-19. Our retrospective analysis of scientific data supports the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is indeed a naturally occurring virus. However, the spillover model considered today as the main explanation to zoonotic emergence does not match the virus dynamics and somehow misguided the way researches were conducted. We conclude this review by proposing a change of paradigm and model and introduce the circulation model for explaining the various aspects of the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 emergence in humans.